中國「兩會」五大焦點:經濟增速、「十五五」開局、科技自主、高層人事安排及國防預算

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Last month, the US supreme court struck down the president’s so-called “liberation day” tariffs, potentially opening the door to as much as $175bn in refunds for businesses that paid the import taxes but the process for claiming that money is complex and uncertain.

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Speaking on the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast on March 2, Struyven broke down the math behind the market’s reaction. Without sustained supply disruptions, Goldman Sachs estimates the fair value for Brent crude oil to be around $65 per barrel. “With the market price at $78, the market is essentially pricing an $13 per barrel risk premium,” Struyven explained. According to the firm’s models, this $13 premium perfectly aligns with the expected price impact of a 100% full closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasting for roughly one month.